Flock projection
It is estimated that the WA sheep flock may number just 13.0 million in mid-2016 as seen below in Table 1.
In July 2015 the ABS estimated that the total number of sheep and lambs in WA was 14.0 million head. Provided the five year averages held true, approximately 5.85 million lambs were marked and total turn-off, which includes sheep and lamb slaughter, live export and interstate transfers, came to 5.86 million. Including an allowance for losses on farm, this gives a closing number of 13.0 million sheep for the close of the 2015/16 financial year- a year on year decrease of 7%.
Given a total turn-off of 5.86 million and an opening number of 14 million head, a marking rate of 103% would be required in order to maintain the flock at 14 million. The five year average from 2011 to 2015, as reported by the ABS, was 88% for Western Australia.
| Opening number of sheep | 14.0 | million | + | |
| Number of ewes joined | 6.63 | million | ^ | |
| Marking rate | 88% | ^ | ||
| Turn off | ||||
| Lambs slaughtered | 2.75 | million | + | |
| Sheep slaughtered | 1.36 | million | + | |
| Live exports | 1.67 | million | + | |
| Interstate movements | 0.08 | million | * | |
| Total turn off | 5.86 | million | ^ | |
| Losses (~7%) | 1.0 | million | ^ | |
| Closing number of sheep (est.) | 13.0 | million | ^ | (-7.1%) |
| + ABS estimate | ||||
| ^ DAFWA estimate | ||||
| * PIRSA estimate |