Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for December 2022 to February 2023 is indicating 25-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, with moderate to good skill (55-75%). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for January to March 2023 is 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly moderate skill (50-65%).
Temperature outlooks for December 2022 to February 2023, from the Bureau indicate a 30-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the lower chances along the south coast . Skill is moderate 65-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 50-75% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is moderate to good at 55-100%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for December 2022 to February 2023.
