Seasonal Climate Outlook

Recent climate

January rainfall was below average for the SWLD. January maximum temperatures were above average and below average along the south east coast. Minimum temperatures were average to above average.  Rainfall since 1 January has been below decile 3 for much of the SWLD. Three Springs has had 24 mm.

January to 6 February 2022 rainfall decile map for the South West Land Division

In January the atmospheric pressure was higher than normal over the SWLD.

In January the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures noth-west of Western Australia were warmer than normal.The February to April 2022 SST forecast, by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates SSTs are likely to remain warmer than normal north-west and west of WA.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), describes the north–south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica, dominating the middle to higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive. In a positive SAM phase, the belt of westerly winds contracts towards Antarctica. It is forecast to return to neutral by mid-February. A positive, neutral or negative SAM phase in summer has no influence on SWLD rainfall. For more information see the Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Driver Update.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. A neutral IOD has little influence on Australian climate.

A mature La Niña event remains active in the tropical Pacific. Climate models indicate the current La Niña event is likely at or near its peak, with a return to neutral likely in early autumn 2022.The table below gives a summary of past month and three-month South West Land Division (SWLD) climate conditions, and can indicate what is likely to occur in the near future if climate conditions follow the current pattern.