Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 65-75% chance of exceeding median rainfall for April to June 2020. Predictive skill is poor to good (55-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for May to July has lower chances at 45-65%, with the higher chances for northern and eastern parts of the grainbelt. Predictive skill is 55-65% consistent. The rainfall outlook suggests the autumn break for southern cropping regions may occur closer to its average time this year.
Temperature outlooks for April to June 2020, from the Bureau indicate a 35-55% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill 55-100%) and 70-80% chance of above average night-time minima (skill 45-65%) for the SWLD.
