Seasonal Climate Outlook

Summary

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating less than 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November 2018.

  • The SSF is indicating less than a 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt for September to November 2018. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill based on August conditions is mostly poor to good (50- 75% consistent).
  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 20-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November for the South West Land Division (SWLD). Predictive skill is mostly poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
  • Temperature outlooks for September to November 2018, from the Bureau indicate mostly an 80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 45-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent. For the individual month of September, the chance of exceeding median minima is 30-50%, so with clear skies likely, the risk of frost and cold nights continue, especially into September.
  • August rainfall was near average or above average for much of the grainbelt. August maximum and minimum temperatures were generally near average.

Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)

DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.

For spring, September to November, the SSF is indicating less than a 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 rainfall for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill based on August conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).

SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for September to November 2018 using data up to and including August. Indicating a drier than normal outlook (less than a 30% chance) of receiving median rainfall for the grainbelt.
SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for September to November 2018 using data up to and including August
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting September to November rainfall using data up to and including August. Skill is 50 to 75 percent consistent.
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting September to November rainfall using data up to and including August