Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating less than 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November 2018.
- The SSF is indicating less than a 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt for September to November 2018. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill based on August conditions is mostly poor to good (50- 75% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 20-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November for the South West Land Division (SWLD). Predictive skill is mostly poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for September to November 2018, from the Bureau indicate mostly an 80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 45-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent. For the individual month of September, the chance of exceeding median minima is 30-50%, so with clear skies likely, the risk of frost and cold nights continue, especially into September.
- August rainfall was near average or above average for much of the grainbelt. August maximum and minimum temperatures were generally near average.
Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.
For spring, September to November, the SSF is indicating less than a 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 rainfall for most of the grainbelt. Predictive skill based on August conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
