Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is called the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 20-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November for the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).

Temperature outlooks for spring, September to November 2018, from the Bureau mostly indicate an 80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 45-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 45-65% consistent. For the individual month of September, the chance of exceeding median minima is 30-50%, so with clear skies likely, the risk of frost and cold nights continue, especially into September.

Rainfall outlook for September to November 2018 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology, indicating a 20-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall
Rainfall outlook for September to November 2018 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for September to November rainfall, indicating a 45 to 65 percent consistent skill.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for September to November rainfall