Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for October to December is generally less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division.
- For October to December, the SSF is generally less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the majority of the SWLD. Predictive skill based on September conditions is poor to moderate (50-70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 60-80% of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2020 for the majority of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is good (65% consistent). The longer-term outlook for November to January 2021 is similar. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-65%).
- Temperature outlooks for October to December 2020, from the Bureau indicate a 30-60% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill very high above 75%) and 60-80% chance of above average night-time minima (skill very high above 75%) for the SWLD.
- September rainfall was below average in the Central West and parts of the Central wheatbelt and Esperance shire, above average in the south west and average elsewhere. September maximum temperatures were very much above average. September minimum temperatures were above average.
- A La Niña has developed in the Pacific Ocean, this will increase the chance of rainfall for eastern Australia. In a La Niña, there is an increased chance of above average number of tropical systems (cyclones and lows) across northern Australia. This may lead to more summer rainfall in the SWLD.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For October to December, the SSF is generally less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the majority of the SWLD. Predictive skill based on September conditions is poor to moderate (50-70% consistent).
