Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 45-75% chance of exceeding median rainfall for autumn, March to May 2020. Similar to the SSF, highest probabilities are for the South Coast. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for April to June is also 45-75% chance, higher chances for eastern grainbelt.
Temperature outlooks for autumn, March to May 2020, from the Bureau indicate a 35-55% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill 45-65%) and 75-80% chance of above average night-time minima (skill 50-65%) for the SWLD.
