Seasonal Climate Outlook

Summary

The Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating below median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (which includes the Wheatbelt) for April to June and April to October 2017.

  • The SSF is indicating 30-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the Wheatbelt. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall is most likely for April to June. Predictive skill based on March conditions is poor to good (50-100% consistent).
  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the South West Land Division (SWLD) has a 20-35% chance of exceeding median rainfall for April to June. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent).
  • Temperature outlooks for April to June from the Bureau indicate a 35-60% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the south-west corner. For the Wheatbelt, chances are higher at 60-70%. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 30-65% chance of above normal night-time minima for SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent.
  • DAFWA’s SSF is indicating a 20-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for April to October. The most probable decile range map indicates rainfall decile of 2-3 for the majority of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill based on March conditions is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
  • Rainfall in March was average to above average for most of the SWLD. Maximum temperatures were below average (decile 2-3), whilst minimum temperatures were average.

Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia

Statistical seasonal forecasting (SSF)

DAFWA’s Statistical seasonal forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.

The SSF forecast April to June 2017 is indicating 30-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 2-3 rainfall for April to June for the majority of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill based on March conditions is poor to moderate (50-70% consistent).

SSF forecast of probability of exceeding median rainfall for April to June 2017 indicating 30-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall.

SSF forecast of probability of exceeding median rainfall for April to June 2017

SSF most probable decile map for April to June 2017 indicating decile 2-3 rainfall most likely for the majority of the South-West Land Division.

SSF most probable decile map for April to June 2017

Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting April to June rainfall using data up to and including March. Skill is 50–100% consistent.

Percent consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting April to June rainfall using data up to and including March

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