Seasonal Outlook 3 October 2018
Dr Meredith Guthrie, Climate, maps produced by Anna Hepworth, e-Connected grainbelt project DPIRD
Rainfall
Seasonal rainfall to date decile map (Figure 1) indicates most of the southern grainbelt has received decile 2-3 rainfall, while northern and central grainbelt is tracking between decile 4-7.
[1]Following a wet August (Figure 2), September rainfall was well below average (Figure 3).
[2]
[3]Temperature
Several frost events occurred in September (Figure 4 and 5), with a severe frost event on 15 September 2018 (Figure 6).
[4]Individual locations recorded up to 10 frost events during September.
[5]
[6]Soil moisture
After a very wet August, came a very dry September, so soil water moisture levels according to the Bureau of Meteorology Landscape Water Balance [7] model are low throughout most of the grainbelt (Figure 7).
[8]Potential yield
The potential yield map (Figure 8), using rainfall to 1 October, indicates lower yields expected in the eastern grainbelt and Salmon Gums area (which has also received low rainfall this year).
[9]Rainfall forecast next two weeks
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Water and the Land [10] rain forecast combines eight weather models, and is indicating up to 25mm for the grainbelt in the next seven days (Figure 9).
[11]Further ahead, the US NCEP [12] model (Figure 9) is indicating more rain, though of smaller amounts.
[13]