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Western Australian flock demographics

Following two decades of decline the Western Australian (WA) sheep flock reached its lowest number in mid-2011 when it numbered just 14.0 million head following a severe drought in the prime sheep producing regions of WA. Between 2010/11 and 2012/13 the flock went through a recovery phase rebuilding to 15.5 million, an increase of 10%. However, over the following two years the size of the WA flock contracted, declining to 14.0 million by mid-2015, before rising to approximately 14.3 million in 2016 (Figure 1).

Similarly the number of breeding ewes has also declined during the last ten years. In 2004/05 there were 13.3 million ewes but this number has fallen to 7.5 million in 2015/16.

Whilst declining in absolute terms, WA sheep turn-off as a proportion of the flock size has increased in recent years. This is reflective of the rising importance of sheepmeat, increasing marking rates and the changing structure of the flock. In 2004/05 turn-off as a percentage of the flock was less than 30% however this has risen to 41% in 2015/16.

Figure 1  Closing number of sheep and lambs, and closing number of breeding ewes in WA and total turn-off for WA (Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, Department of Agriculture and Food, WA (DAFWA) analysis)[1] [1] 2015/16* DAFWA estimate.

Over the last 25 years, the WA sheep flock has changed in structure and composition. As evident in Figure 2 the breeding ewe component of the flock has increased significantly from 45% in 1990 to 62% in 2015, whilst at the same time the proportion of wethers in the flock has decreased from 32% to 9%. This is largely due to the rising importance of sheepmeat, especially lamb, to the sheep enterprise and the reduced reliance on wool due to low prices following the stockpile era.

Figure 2 Changes in the Western Australian flock composition between 1990 and 2015 (Based on ABARES AgSurf data, DAFWA analysis)

Flock Projection

It is estimated that the WA sheep flock may number just 12.9 million in mid-2017 as seen below in Table 1.

Table 1 Western Australian flock projection 2016/17

In July 2016 it is estimated that the total number of sheep and lambs in WA was 14.3 million head. The five year averages indicate approximately 5.81 million lambs marked and total turn-off, which includes sheep and lamb slaughter, live export and interstate transfers, is projected to reach around 6.37 million. Including an allowance for losses on farm, this gives a closing number of 12.9 million sheep for the close of the 2016/17 financial year- a year on year decrease of 10%.

For further detail please see the latest edition of Sheep Notes.