Seasonal Outlook 3 October 2018
Dr Meredith Guthrie, Climate, maps produced by Anna Hepworth, e-Connected grainbelt project DPIRD
Seasonal rainfall to date decile map (Figure 1) indicates most of the southern grainbelt has received decile 2-3 rainfall, while northern and central grainbelt is tracking between decile 4-7.
Following a wet August (Figure 2), September rainfall was well below average (Figure 3).
Several frost events occurred in September (Figure 4 and 5), with a severe frost event on 15 September 2018 (Figure 6).
Individual locations recorded up to 10 frost events during September.
After a very wet August, came a very dry September, so soil water moisture levels according to the Bureau of Meteorology Landscape Water Balance model are low throughout most of the grainbelt (Figure 7).
The potential yield map (Figure 8), using rainfall to 1 October, indicates lower yields expected in the eastern grainbelt and Salmon Gums area (which has also received low rainfall this year).
Rainfall forecast next two weeks
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Water and the Land rain forecast combines eight weather models, and is indicating up to 25mm for the grainbelt in the next seven days (Figure 9).
Further ahead, the US NCEP model (Figure 9) is indicating more rain, though of smaller amounts.