Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for spring, September to November 2022 is indicating 25-55% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD.  Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for October to December 2022 is 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly poor skill (45-65%).

Temperature outlooks for spring, September to November 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 30-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the lower chances inland. Skill is 75-100%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 50- 80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is moderate to high at 55-100%.

Rainfall outlook for spring, September to November 2022 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology indicating 25-55% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD.
Rainfall outlook for spring, September to November 2022 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology

Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for September to November indicating 45 to 75 percent consistent skill over the SWLD.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for September to November

 

Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for spring, September to November 2022.

Model distribution summary of 12 models outlook for September to November 2022 rainfall in the South West Land Division. The majority are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months.
Model distribution summary of 12 models outlook for September to November 2022 rainfall in the South West Land Division.