Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for spring, September to November 2022 is indicating 25-55% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for October to December 2022 is 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly poor skill (45-65%).
Temperature outlooks for spring, September to November 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 30-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the lower chances inland. Skill is 75-100%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 50- 80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is moderate to high at 55-100%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for spring, September to November 2022.
