Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the SWLD has a 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent). The Bureau’s drier outlook is influenced by localised factors such as cooler than normal Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and higher sea level pressures. Less cold fronts are likely for spring.

Temperature outlooks for spring, September to November, from the Bureau indicate a 30-60% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 45-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks also indicate a 30-60% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with poor to moderate skill at 45-65% consistent. Frost risk remains in areas with clear skies and dry soils.

Rainfall outlook for spring, September to November 2017 from the Bureau of Meteorology. Indicating 30 to 45 percent chance of exceeding spring rainfall.
Rainfall outlook for spring, September to November 2017 from the Bureau of Meteorology

Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for spring, September to November rainfall. Skill is 45 to 65 percent consistent.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for spring, September to November rainfall