Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates the SWLD has a 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring, September to November. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent). The Bureau’s drier outlook is influenced by localised factors such as cooler than normal Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and higher sea level pressures. Less cold fronts are likely for spring.
Temperature outlooks for spring, September to November, from the Bureau indicate a 30-60% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is poor to good at 45-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks also indicate a 30-60% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with poor to moderate skill at 45-65% consistent. Frost risk remains in areas with clear skies and dry soils.