Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for October to December 2021 is indicating 45-75% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD, with the higher chances for areas of the Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (45-65% consistent). The longer term outlook for November 2021 to January 2021 is similar. Skill is poor to good (45-75%).

Temperature outlooks for October to December 2021, from the Bureau indicate a 25-65% chance of above average day-time maxima, with lower chances for the southern coast and interior (skill is good at 75-100%). The Bureau indicates a 50-80% chance of exceeding above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with higher chances for the Central West forecast district (skill is good 75-100%).

Rainfall outlook for October to December 2021 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology, indicating 45-75% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD.
Rainfall outlook for October to December 2021 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Per cent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for October to December indicating 45 to 65 percent consistent skill over the SWLD.
Per cent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for October to December.

 

The majority of other rainfall forecasting models are indicating neutral chances of exceeding above median rainfall for the SWLD for October to December 2021.

Model distribution summary of 12 models (not including the SSF) which forecast October to December 2021 rainfall in the South West Land Division. The majority are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months.
Model distribution summary of 12 models (not including the SSF) which forecast October to December 2021 rainfall in the South West Land Division.