Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for October to December, 2019 is indicating 20-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West land Division (SWLD).
- For October to December 2019, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the Central West, Lower West and South West and Great Southern Districts. Neutral (40-60%) chances, elsewhere. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 parts of the Central West, Lower West and South West and Great Southern Districts and decile 4-7 for elsewhere. See Bureau of Meteorology forecast districts. Predictive skill based on September conditions is poor to good (50 -70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 20-30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2019, for the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is moderate (55-65% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for October to December 2019, from the Bureau indicate over 80% chances of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is very good at over 75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with very good skill of over 75% consistent.
- September rainfall, was below average for the SWLD. September maximum temperatures were very much above average, with highest on record in some locations and minimum temperatures were above average.
- The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to continue until the end of spring.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For October to December 2019, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the Central West, Lower West and South West and Great Southern Districts. Neutral (40-60%) chances, elsewhere. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 parts of the Central West, Lower West and South West and Great Southern Districts and decile 4-7 for elsewhere. Predictive skill based on September conditions is poor to good (50 -70% consistent).
