Seasonal Climate Outlook

Summary

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating less than 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2018 for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD). For Esperance the chance of exceeding median rainfall is greater at 60-80%.

  • The SSF is indicating less than 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2018 for the majority of the SWLD. For Esperance, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is greater at 60-80%. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for most of the grainbelt and decile 8-9 in Esperance. Predictive skill based on September conditions is mostly poor to good (50-70% consistent).
  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating a 30-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for October to December for the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly poor to moderate (45-65% consistent).
  • Temperature outlooks for October to December 2018, from the Bureau indicate greater than 80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 65-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate greater than 75% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill mostly good at 55-75% consistent.
  • September rainfall was below average for the grainbelt. September maximum temperatures were average to above average and minimum temperatures were generally below average, with a wide spread frost event on 15 September.

Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)

DPIRD’s SSF system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal climate information page.

For the next three months, October to December, the SSF is indicating less than 30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. For Esperance, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is greater at 60-80%. The most probable decile range is decile 2-3 for most of the grainbelt and decile 8-9 for Esperance. Predictive skill based on September conditions is mostly poor to good (50-70% consistent).

SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2018 using data up to and including September. Indicating a drier than normal outlook (less than a 30% chance) of receiving median rainfall for the majority of the Southw
SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for October to December 2018 using data up to and including September

Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting October to December rainfall using data up to and including September. Skill is 50 to 70 percent consistent.
Percent consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting October to December rainfall using data up to and including September