Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for November 2019 to January 2020 is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD).
- For November 2019 to January 2020, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. For Esperance shire, the chance is higher at 40-60% (neutral). The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 1-3 for SWLD. Predictive skill based on October conditions is poor to good (50 -70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 20-30% chance of exceeding median rainfall for November 2019 to January 2020, for most of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent).
- Temperature outlooks for November 2019 to January 2020, from the Bureau indicate an 80% chance of above average day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is good at 65-100% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above average night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill good at 65-100% consistent.
- October rainfall was below average to average for the SWLD. October maximum and minimum temperatures were above average.
- The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is continuing to influence Australian climate, while a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely to influence Australia for the coming weeks.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For November 2019 to January 2020, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. For Esperance shire, the chance is higher at 40-60% (neutral). The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 1-3 for the majority of the SWLD. Predictive skill based on October conditions is poor to good (50 -70% consistent).
