Seasonal Climate Outlook

Summary

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system is indicating neutral chances (40-60%) of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018 for most of the South West Land Division (SWLD) which includes the Wheatbelt.

  • The SSF is indicating neutral (40-60%) chances of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD, including the Wheatbelt. For the south-west corner, there is less than a 40% chance of exceeding the median rainfall. The most probable decile range map indicates decile 4-7 rainfall is most likely, with decile 2-3 for south-west corner. Predictive skill based on November conditions is poor to good (50-70% consistent).
  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates that much of the SWLD has a 45-55% chance of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018. For Albany and surrounding shires, this chance is lower at 40-45%. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (50-65% consistent).
  • Temperature outlooks for November 2017 to January 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 45-55% chance of above normal day-time maxima for most of the SWLD. Skill is mostly moderate to good at 50-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate 45-50% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with moderate to good skill at 50-75% consistent.
  • October rainfall in the SWLD was below average to average. October maximum and minimum temperatures were near average.

Three month outlook for the south-west of Western Australia

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting

DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information page.

The SSF forecast for November 2017 to January 2018 is indicating neutral chances (40-60%) of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. For the south-west corner, there is a less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Predictive skill based on October conditions is poor to good (50-70% consistent). The most probable decile range map indicates decile 4-7 rainfall is most likely, with decile 2-3 for south-west corner.

SSF forecast of probability of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018. Indicating a neutral chance of receiving median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. With lower chance (less than 40%) for the south-west cor
SSF forecast of probability of exceeding median rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018

Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting November to January rainfall using data up to and including October. Skill is 50 to 70 percent consistent.
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting November to January rainfall using data up to and including October