Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for May to July 2022 is indicating neutral (40-55%) chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-100% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for winter June to August 2022 is also mostly neutral, with lower chances (35-45%) for the northern grainbelt, with moderate to good skill (55-75%).
Temperature outlooks for May to July 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 45-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is 75-100%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 55- 80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is poor mostly at 45-55%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for May to July 2022.
