Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for May to July 2020 is indicating less than 40% probability of above median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD). For May to October, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of above median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. Chances are higher at greater than 60% along the south coast.
- For May to July 2020, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3. Predictive skill based on April conditions is moderate to good (60 -100% consistent).
- For May to October, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of above median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. Chances are higher at greater than 60% along the south coast. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the majority of the South West Land Division, with decile 4-7 for soem parts in the northern agricultural region and south coast. Predictive skill based on April conditions is poor to good (50 -75% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 40-70% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May to July 2020. Predictive skill is poor to good (55-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for winter, June to August, is expecting neutral to wetter conditionsh . Predictive skill is 50-75% consistent.
- Temperature outlooks for May to July 2020, from the Bureau indicate a 55-80% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill 75-100%) and 80% chance of above average night-time minima (skill 45-65%) for the SWLD.
- April rainfall was below average for the SWLD.April maximum and minimum temperatures were above average.
- A warmer than average eastern Indian Ocean is currently the main influence on Australia’s climate, increasing the moisture available to weather systems as they sweep across the country.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For May to July 2020, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3. Predictive skill based on April conditions is moderate to good (60 -100% consistent).
