Seasonal Climate Outlook

May to October outlook for South West Land Division

For May-October, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the grainbelt. The most probable decile rainfall map indicates decile 2-3 most likely for the grainbelt. Predictive skill is poor to good, 50-75% consistent.

A recent Research Updates paper (Guthrie and Evans, 2018) showed that since 2012 (when SSF was developed) the May-October outlook has been correct in five out of six years for the northern and central grainbelt. Two out of six years in the southern region and four out of six years in the Esperance region.

SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for May to October 2018. Indicating less than 40% chance of receiving median rainfall for the grainbelt.
SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for May-October 2018
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting May to October rainfall up to and including April. Skill is 50 to 75 percent consistent.
Percent Consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting May-October rainfall up to and including April

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