Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates generally 30-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May-July 2018 for most of the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly moderate to good (55-75% consistent). 

Temperature outlooks for May-July 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 60-70% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 50-65% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent.

Little rain is predicted for the next 10 days and barring a major event at the end of the month, it appears likely May rainfall will be well below average. A survey of Australian and international climate models indicates half of them are indicating May-July rainfall is likely to be lower than the long-term median.

Rainfall outlook for May to July 2018 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology. Indicating 30 to 45 percent chance of exceeding median rainfall.
Rainfall outlook for May-July 2018 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for May to July rainfall. Skill is 55 to 75 per cent consistent.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for May-July rainfall

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