Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates generally 30-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall for May-July 2018 for most of the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly moderate to good (55-75% consistent).
Temperature outlooks for May-July 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 60-70% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 50-65% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with skill poor to moderate at 50-65% consistent.
Little rain is predicted for the next 10 days and barring a major event at the end of the month, it appears likely May rainfall will be well below average. A survey of Australian and international climate models indicates half of them are indicating May-July rainfall is likely to be lower than the long-term median.