Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for autumn, March to May 2023, is indicating 25-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, with mostly poor skill (45-65%). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for April to June 2023 is 25-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly poor skill (45-75%). Temperature outlooks for autumn, March to May 2023, from the Bureau indicate an 80% chance of above average day-time maxima. Skill is moderate to good 65-100%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 70-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is mostly poor at 45-65%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating low chances of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for autumn, March to May 2023.