Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for autumn March to May indicated generally neutral (40-55%) chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (50-65% consistent). The longer term outlook for April to June has chances below 40% for the majority of the SWLD with poor to moderate predictive skill (50-65%).
Temperature outlooks for autumn March to May 2021, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima along the coast, with lower chances (40-60%) for interior (skill 45-55%) and 60-80% chance of above average night-time minima along the coast, with neutral chances (45-55%) for interior (skill 45-65%).
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are suggesting above average rainfall for March to May 2021 for the South West Land Division.
