Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for autumn March to May 2021 is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for Esperance and the western part of the South West Land Division (SWLD). Neutral chances elsewhere.
- For autumn, March to May 2021, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for Esperance and the western part of the South West Land Division (SWLD). Neutral chances elsewhere. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for Esperance and western and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on February conditions is mostly poor to moderate (50-70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for autumn March to May indicated generally neutral (40-55%) chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to moderate (50-65% consistent). The longer term outlook for April to June has chances below 40% for the majority of the SWLD with poor to moderate predictive skill (50-65%).
- Temperature outlooks for autumn March to May 2021, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima along the coast, with lower chances (40-60%) for interior (skill 45-55%) and 60-80% chance of above average night-time minima along the coast, with neutral chances (45-55%) for interior (skill 45-65%).
- February rainfall was above average for the South West Land Division due to tropical low early on in the month, with Jurien receiving 100 mm of rain. February maximum temperatures were below average and minimum temperatures were average.
- Tropical lows from the north are currently the main climate driver bringing rain to the South West Land Division.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For autumn, March to May 2021, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for Esperance and the western part of the South West Land Division (SWLD). Neutral chances elsewhere. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for Esperance and western and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Predictive skill based on February conditions is mostly poor to moderate (50-70% consistent).
