Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for winter, June to August, 2022 is indicating less than 40% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-100% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for July to September 2022 has higher chances (45-70%), with moderate to good skill (45-75%).
Temperature outlooks for winter, June to August 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 45-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is 65-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 45-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is poor at 45-65%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for winter, June to August, 2022.
SSF Forecast for June to October
The SSF forecast for SWLD June to October 2022 rainfall is indicating less than 40% probability of above median rainfall in parts of the Central West, Central Wheatbelt, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts. Above 60% for western parts of the Great Southern and along the southern coast of the South West forecast district, with neutral probabilities elsewhere. The most likely decile range map is indicating decile 2-3 for large part of the SWLD, decile 8-9 for western part of the Great Southern and the South West forecast districts and decile 4-7 elsewhere. Skill is poor to good at 50 to 100 % consistent.
