Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for July to September 2022 is indicating less than 40% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD.  Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for August to October 2022 is wetter 45-70%, with poor to good skill (45-75%).

Temperature outlooks for July to September 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is 65-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 60-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is poor at 45-65%.

Rainfall outlook for winter July to September 2022 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology indicating 25-60% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD.
Rainfall outlook for winter July to September 2022 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for July to September indicating 55 to 75 percent consistent skill over the SWLD.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for July to September

Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for July to September 2022.

Model distribution summary of 12 models outlook for July to September 2022 rainfall in the South West Land Division. The majority are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months.
Model distribution summary of 12 models outlook for July to September 2022 rainfall in the South West Land Division.