Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for July to September 2022 is indicating less than 40% chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75% consistent). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for August to October 2022 is wetter 45-70%, with poor to good skill (45-75%).
Temperature outlooks for July to September 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is 65-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 60-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is poor at 45-65%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for July to September 2022.