Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system, which is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for January to March 2022 is indicating less than 45% chance of above median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD.  For the South East Coastal forecast district, chances are wetter at 45-65%. Predictive skill is poor to good (55-75% consistent).

The longer term outlook for February to April 2021 is mostly neutral, with wetter (up to 70%) chance for South East Coastal forecast district. Skill is poor to (45-55%).

Temperature outlooks from the Bureau for January to March 2022 indicate a 45-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, and lower chances along the South Coast. Skill is 55-75%. There is a 60-80% chance of exceeding above average night-time minima for the SWLD. Skill is 55-75%.

Rainfall outlook for January to March 2022 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for January to March.

The majority of other models are indicating neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, for January to March 2022.

Model distribution summary of 12 models (not including the SSF) which forecast January to March 2022 rainfall in the South West Land Division