Seasonal Climate Outlook

Summary

The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for January to February 2023, is indicating mixed probabilities of above median rainfall for South West Land Division (SWLD), although skill is very low this time of the year.

  • For January to February 2023, the SSF forecast is indicating greater than 60% probability of above median rainfall for part of the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, below 40% probability for part of the Central West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal Forecast districts, and 40-60% chance elsewhere. Skill is mostly poor at 50-70% consistent.  
  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for January to March 2023 is indicating 25-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, with moderate to good skill (55-75%).  The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for February to April 2023 and March to May 2023 is less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly moderate skill (50-65%).
  • Temperature outlooks for February to April 2023, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the higher chances for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt . Skill is moderate 55-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 60-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with higher chances along the coast. Skill is moderate at 55-65%.
  • December rainfall was below average to average. December maximum temperatures were below average to average. Minimum temperatures were average.
  • The warmer sea surface temperatures north of Australia increases the likelihood of tropical cyclones developing. January to March rainfall in the SWLD is usually caused by isolated thunderstorms and tropical cyclones and are therefore harder to (long-lead) forecast, than winter rainfall which are mostly from westerly frontal systems.

Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)

DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from DPIRD’s Seasonal Climate Information pages.

For January to February 2023, the SSF forecast is indicating greater than 60% probability of above median rainfall for part of the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, below 40% probability for part of the Central West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal Forecast districts, and 40-60% chance elsewhere. Skill is mostly poor at 50-70% consistent.  

SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for January to February using data up to and including November. Indicating mixed probabilities of above median rainfall for the South West Land Division.
SSF forecast of the probability of exceeding median rainfall for January to February using data up to and including November
Percent consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting January to February rainfall using data up to and including November. Skill is 50 to 70 percent consistent.
Percent consistent skill of the SSF at forecasting January to February rainfall using data up to and including November