Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates generally 60-80% chance of exceeding median rainfall for January to March 2018 for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent).
On average, there are seven tropical cyclones each season in the western region of Australia. The Bureau’s tropical cyclone outlook is indicating the average number is expected this coming summer. Typically between about 15-40% of tropical cyclones in the western region create coastal impacts. Wheatbelt summer rainfall is generally from localised thunderstorms, but tropical cyclones and tropical lows can generate significant rain if they travel southwards.
Temperature outlooks for January to March 2018 from the Bureau indicate a 35-80% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD, with higher probabilties concentrated in the south-west region. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 60-80% chance of above normal night-time minima for most of the SWLD, with poor to moderate skill at 45-65% consistent.
The Heatwave Forecast, produced by the Bureau shows the location of heatwaves, severe heatwaves and extreme heatwaves for three-day periods. It may be useful to assist with livestock management. The latest bushfire outlook produced by The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, indicates an above normal bushfire risk for the south-west corner.
