Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for February to April 2023 is indicating 25-45% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, with poor to moderate skill (55-65%). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for March to May 2023 is less than 45% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly poor skill (45-65%).
Temperature outlooks for February to April 2023, from the Bureau indicate a 65-80% chance of above average day-time maxima . Skill is moderate 65-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 50-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with the higher chances along the coast. Skill is moderate at 55-75%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are equally indicating neutral to below, and neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for February to April 2023.
