Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for February to April 2020 is indicating a mixed outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD).
- For February to April 2020, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the Central West and Central Wheatbelt Districts with higher chances (greater than 60%) for parts of the Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal Districts. Neutral chances (40-60%) for other areas of the South West Land Division. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for parts of the Central West and Central Wheatbelt Districts and decile 8-10 for parts of the Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal. Predictive skill based on January conditions is poor to good (50 -75% consistent) with slightly better skill in the east.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook for the period February to April 2020 is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the Lower West and western parts of the Central Wheat Belt, with the neutral chance (40-55%) for the reminder of the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for autumn, March to May is near neutral (40-55%) but with poorer skill at 45-65% consistent. Predictive skill is poorer in autumn as the connections between atmosphere and ocean in the Pacific can change rapidly at this time.
- Temperature outlooks for February to April 2020, from the Bureau indicate a 55-80% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill 50-75%) and 65-80% chance of above average night-time minima (skill 55-75%) for the SWLD.
- January rainfall was below average to average for the SWLD.January maximum and minimum temperatures were generally average.
- Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and around much of Australia may be contributing to some changes in weather patterns over the continent, while warm and dry soils—a legacy of Australia's warmest and driest year on record in 2019—are likely to be contributing to warmer than average temperatures.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from the Seasonal Climate Information web page.
For February to April 2020, the SSF is indicating less than 40%chance of exceeding median rainfall for parts of the Central West and Central Wheatbelt Districts with higher chances (greater than 60%) for parts of the Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal Districts. Neutral chances (40-60%) for other areas of the South West Land Division. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for parts of the Central West and Central Wheatbelt Districts and decile 8-10 for parts of the Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal. Predictive skill based on January conditions is poor to good (50 -75% consistent) with slightly better skill in the east.
