Seasonal Climate Outlook

Australian Bureau of Meteorology 

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook issued on 3 December is indicating 65-75% of exceeding median rainfall for summer, December 2020 to February 2021 for the majority of the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (45-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for January to March is similar. Predictive skill is moderate to good (55-75%).

Temperature outlooks for summer, December 2020 to February 2021, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima along the west coast, with lower chances (less than 40%) for the south coast and interior (high skill 75-100%) and 80% chance of above average night-time minima (high skill 75-100%) for the SWLD. These outlooks can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20201029-outlook.shtml .

Rainfall outlook for December 2020 to February 2021 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for December to February.

Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the odds are for neutral or wetter for December 2020 to February 2021 for the South West Land Division.

Model distribution summary of 13 models (not including the SSF) which forecast December 2020 to February 2021 rainfall in the South West Land Division.