Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 35-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for December 2019 to February 2020, with the higher chance in the northern part of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is good (65-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for January to March is near neutral with 45-65% chance but with poorer skill at 50-75% consistent.
Temperature outlooks for December 2019 to February 2020, from the Bureau indicate an 80% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill 55-100%) and night-time minima (skill 65-100%) for the SWLD for the SWLD.