Seasonal Climate Outlook

Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the UK Meteorological Office. 

The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook is indicating 35-60% chance of exceeding median rainfall for December 2019 to February 2020, with the higher chance in the northern part of the South West Land Division. Predictive skill is good (65-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for January to March is near neutral with 45-65% chance but with poorer skill at 50-75% consistent.

Temperature outlooks for December 2019 to February 2020, from the Bureau indicate an 80% chance of above average day-time maxima (skill 55-100%) and night-time minima (skill 65-100%) for the SWLD for the SWLD.

Rainfall outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology, indicating a near neutral outlook for the SWLD.
Rainfall outlook for December 2019 to February 2020 for Western Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for December to February, indicating 65 to 75 percent consistent skill over the SWLD.
Percent Consistent skill of the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for December to February.