Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are generated by a dynamical (physics based) coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s current seasonal outlook indicates generally a 40-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for April to June 2018 for the SWLD. Predictive skill is mostly moderate to good (55-75% consistent). For the individual month of April, the Bureau is indicating a 30-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD. Given this outlook and the long-term trend for drier autumn and early winter periods, odds favour an average or later-than-average autumn break for parts of southern Australia.
Temperature outlooks for April to June 2018 from the Bureau indicate close to a 50% chance of above normal day-time maxima for the SWLD. Skill is moderate to good at 55-75% consistent. Minimum temperature outlooks indicate a 55-65% chance of above normal night-time minima for the SWLD, with poor to moderate skill at 50-65% consistent.