With late sowing, it is important to assess chances of achieving a certain yield. For example, in Wongan Hills, there is a reasonable chance (more than 90%) of getting 1.0t/ha when sowing between the beginning of April and mid May, but this is reduced to around 60% for sowing at the end of May (Figure 2). This is based on last 41 years of climate data.
In any given year, a later sowing may yield well if the rain is optimally distributed throughout the season. The APSIM model results are a guide; so if you have information that your soil is better than average, that the season is looking to be better than average, or that the price is looking better than average you should take these things into account.
This section contains information for each location studied, based on average of 41 years of APSIM-Canola simulations using local climate data.
- Risk graph: A graph of the risk profile or the chances of getting certain yields by certain sowing dates, for a medium maturity cultivar (ATR Bonito) on a duplex soil
Farre I, Robertson MJ, Walton GH, Asseng S (2002) Simulating phenology and yield response of canola to sowing date in Western Australia using the APSIM model. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 53, 1155-1164.
This information was produced by Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development's Tactical Break Crop Agronomy Project (DAW00227), co-funded by Grains Research and Development Corporation.