Barley module of Flower Power

Barley module of Flower Power is a statistical model to predict the date of awn emergence (Z49) in Western Australian environments. Date of awn emergence (Z49) is used as a surrogate for flowering due to the difficulty in accurately recording flowering date in barley.

This model provides a guide to enable reasonably accurate varietal comparisons for maturity. The Barley version of the popular Flower Power tool will be released in early 2018.

How can the barley module of Flower Power be used?

This is a decision support tool to assist growers understand the relative difference in maturity between barley varieties (as determined by duration to awn emergence, Z49) when sown at different seeding dates for specific sites.

This module enables the user to compare date of awn emergence (a surrogate for flowering) predictions for a number of barley varieties at the same time over a range of sowing dates and to compare the predictions for normal, very cold or very warm seasons.

Development is a complex phenomenon. Early or late break of season, generally colder or warmer seasons, a northern or a southern location, freezing or high temperatures are all conditions that can influence the day when a given variety will flower at a given location in a given season type.

How does barley module of Flower Power benefit profitability?

Opportunities exist to maximise yield benefits if the timing of barley flowering can be identified by growers. For this reason, growers and consultants value tools that can predict location specific flowering dates of varieties at different sowing dates.

Variety choice and sowing date are key to maximising yield potential. Earlier sowing should mean better water use efficiencies and higher yields. Matching variety to sowing time aims to maximise growth, minimise the likelihood of frost after flowering and avoid the incidence of high temperature events during grain fill.

Background

The barley module of Flower Power has been developed by modifying the statistical model (DM) developed by Sharma and D’Antuono (2011). The DM model provides the predictions for the wheat module of the Flower Power tool. Modifications to the original wheat model have been developed and full details will be available in a forthcoming publication as well as an upgraded Flower Power module to include wheat and barley.

Tables have been developed to predict date to awn emergence (Z49) for the varieties; Bass, Baudin, Commander, Compass, Fathom, Flinders, Gairdner, Granger, La Trobe, Litmus, Rosalind, Scope CL and Spartacus CL.

The model uses the last 50 seasons to give median predictions of the day of the year to reach Z49 for each variety as well as ranks the 50 seasons on a 'heat-sum slope parameter' to provide a prediction for a 'likely season' if it ranked like one of the seasons in the model. The higher the slope the warmer the season (higher deciles), the lower the slope the cooler the season (lower deciles).

Further information

An example of the abbreviated table comparing Z49 for La Trobe and Baudin sown at 10 days interval from 20 April-30 June at Kojonup is illustrated below broken into middle or normal seasons (deciles 4 to 7), colder than normal (deciles 1 to 3), and warmer than normal (deciles 8 to 10). The lower 10 percentile, median or 50 percentile and 90 percentile indicate the probability that a variety will reach Z49 that date.

Table 1 Predictions for seasons in deciles 1-3 (colder than normal), Kojonup
Sowing date Variety Lower 10 date Median 50 date Upper 90 date
20 Apr Baudin 6 Sep 8 Sep 11 Sep
20 Apr La Trobe 25 Aug 29 Aug 2 Sep
30 Apr Baudin 13 Sep 16 Sep 19 Sep
30 Apr La Trobe 2 Sep 6 Sep 10 Sep
10 May Baudin 20 Sep 22 Sep 24 Sep
10 May La Trobe 11 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep
20 May Baudin 29 Sep 30 Sep 2 Oct
20 May La Trobe 20 Sep 22 Sep 24 Sep
30 May Baudin 4 Oct 6 Oct 8 Oct
30 May La Trobe 26 Sep 28 Sep 30 Sep
10 Jun Baudin 12 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
10 Jun La Trobe 3 Oct 5 Oct 7 Oct
20 Jun Baudin 17 Oct 17 Oct 17 Oct
20 Jun La Trobe 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
30 Jun Baudin 21 Oct 21 Oct 21 Oct
30 Jun La Trobe 15 Oct 16 Oct 16 Oct
Table 2 Predictions for seasons in deciles 4-7 (normal or middle), Kojonup
Sowing date Variety Lower 10 date Median 50 date Upper 90 date
20 Apr Baudin 20 Aug 25 Aug 30 Aug
20 Apr La Trobe 11 Aug 17 Aug 21 Aug
30 Apr Baudin 1 Sep 4 Sep 9 Sep
30 Apr La Trobe 23 Aug 27 Aug 2 Sep
10 May Baudin 11 Sep 14 Sep 18 Sep
10 May La Trobe 3 Sep 6 Sep 11 Sep
20 May Baudin 18 Sep 21 Sep 26 Sep
20 May La Trobe 12 Sep 15 Sep 19 Sep
30 May Baudin 24 Sep 28 Sep 3 Oct
30 May La Trobe 18 Sep 22 Sep 26 Sep
10 Jun Baudin 30 Sep 4 Oct 8 Oct
10 Jun La Trobe 24 Sep 29 Sep 3 Oct
20 Jun Baudin 6 Oct 10 Oct 13 Oct
20 Jun La Trobe 30 Sep 5 Oct 7 Oct
30 Jun Baudin 10 Oct 14 Oct 16 Oct
30 Jun La Trobe 5 Oct 8 Oct 11 Oct

Full tables of predictions for BuntineCorriginEsperance DownsHydenJerramungupKatanningKojonupLake GraceMerredinNarroginNorthamScaddanSouth Stirling and Wickepin are available for download.

Contact information

Raj Malik
+61 (0)8 9821 3247
Page last updated: Monday, 14 August 2017 - 8:33am

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